Positive Omens

The immigration debate right now has me very happy for one particular reason. The reason George Bush won the White House in 2004 was The Base. I’ve written about this before- it’s the evangelical roots of the Base, its ability to shut out economic problems and foreign policy disasters in favor of unity over comparatively pointless social lightning rods, along with its friendly laissez-faire business philosophy, that fuels the Republican Party.

So immigration reform is the perfect issue to rip the right’s little Coalition of the Willing apart. You’ve got big business and Republican moderates on one side, who want illegal immigrants in the country because they’re good for the economy. On the other side, you’ve got hard-right conservatives who want to make it a deportable felony to be an illegal immigrant and want to build an Israeli-style border fence through the desert.

Here’s a rare glimpse of me-as-hard-liner. I actually support the hard-right conservatives on this one. If people come into this country illegally, we really ought to make it illegal. When you fly in, we don’t just say, “We’d really prefer you come through immigration,” but let people walk through to the taxi stand anyway. We don’t put up a sign that says “Welcome to America” on the highway from Mexico and just wave people through. But if you’re an illegal and you’ve been here for more than a few years, we ought to give you a chance to become a citizen. I think that people who sneak through illegally shouldn’t run around with the claim that “we’re Americans, too.” Uh, no. Not yet. And it’s not racism or bias to expect that people who illegally entered the country to maybe make some amends for doing that.

But it doesn’t really matter what I think. The fact is, the Republican Base is split cleanly in two on this one. Republicans are walking a ridiculous tightrope to ensure they don’t upset too many of their core voters, but they don’t know how many of their core voters are on one side of the debate or the other! They know that all of them are anti-abortion, most are anti-gay marriage, and most are pro-gun, but immigration?

The real problem, to be honest, is that Republican money says illegals are good, and Republican voters say illegals are bad, and that’s not a winning combination.

Here’s the other interesting thing. Iran announced today that they were “joining the nuclear club,” purportedly by enriching uranium. But they chose their words carefully. The Nuclear Club means, in everybody’s mind, the club of countries with nuclear weapons. They’re going to have a bomb soon, and they’ve got weapons with the advanced delivery systems to have an offensive capability. This represents (alongside North Korea) one of the most fundamental failures of the Bush foreign policy. They got nukes while we screwed around in a country that wasn’t even trying to get them in the first place. Good job, George.

The point is, the Republican Party is getting pulled in too many directions. 63% of Americans want a Democratic Congress this fall, and if things keep going in the direction the Bush administration is busily pushing them, we’re going to get one.